Trends and Changes in Extreme Weather Events: An assessment with focus on Alberta and Canadian Prairies
نویسنده
چکیده
Disclaimer Alberta Environment funded this study for the Climate Change Research Users Group. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. The author, not the publisher, is responsible for the conclusions and opinions expressed. SUMMARY This report examines recent studies on trends and changes in extreme weather events in Canada and assesses these studies in the context of global warming. The assessment suggests that extreme weather events (hot spells, extreme precipitation events, thunderstorm/tornadoes and ice storms) do not show an increasing trend anywhere in Canada, or over the Canadian prairies at this point in time. On the Canadian prairies, extreme cold spells and winter blizzards are definitely on the decline during the past 40 years. In the higher latitudes of the northeast, from Baffin Bay to Labrador, extreme cold spells have increased in the last 50 years. The total precipitation has increased everywhere in Canada but this increase is mainly due to increase in low to moderate intensity events. The Canadian prairies have experienced drought conditions during the mid-1980s and more recently during 1998/99 and in 2001. These drought patterns appear to be primarily governed by the phase of the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) cycle. Canada as a whole is not getting hotter, but less cold. Canada as a whole is getting a little wetter. On the Canadian prairies, low intensity precipitation events have increased in the last 50 years, and for Alberta, summer precipitation has increased by about 10 per cent. Thunderstorms and tornadoes are not increasing on the prairies at this point in time. There is a considerable variability (and uncertainty) in many of the climate model projections of extreme weather occurrences, particularly in regard to the timing of the occurrences. Based on the careful evaluation of available studies, it appears that the likelihood of increased incidences of extreme weather events during the next ten to twenty years over any region of Canada is very small at this time. The present database in Canada, with respect to several extreme weather events like thunderstorms (with or without tornadoes), severe windstorms, hail and lightening is not adequate for assessment of long term trends and changes. Many of these extreme weather events have been monitored and suitably archived only during the last 25 years or so. A few studies reported recently suggest that some of the extreme weather events like severe tornadoes and windstorms …
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